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Bank Rate Flattens Potential Property Sales Numbers

This week’s decision to hold the Bank of England base rate will put a dent in house sales early next year say estate agents.

That’s because mortgage interest rates will remain the same, meaning property prices will still be out of reach to thousands of would-be buyers. 

Two-thirds of bank committee voted for reduction

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to retain the rate at 4.75% rather than reduce it by 0.25 percentage points as some economists surmised. Those in favour of retaining the current bank rate said it was necessary in order to manage inflation. The Bank is currently aiming for an inflation target of 2%. Inflation sat at 2.6% last month – 0.3% higher than in October’s figure.

Despite this, many property experts are confident that there will be a fall in the base rate next year, and subsequently a drop in mortgage interest rates. Certainly, buyers and lenders alike will be hoping for a fall in rates as a result of Stamp Duty charges reverting to previous ratios on April 1. 

Mortgage expert at property portal Rightmove, Matt Smith said he expected a typical mortgage interest rate to sit at around 4% by the end of next year. But he added: “This is dependent on the impact of a wide variety of unpredictable factors, including geo-political tensions and inflation.”

Former Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) chairman, Jeremy Leaf said a cut in the base rate would be particularly welcomed by first-time buyers, especially in light of increasing rental rates. 

Scotland tops the league for house transactions

Meanwhile, in terms of property sales, Scotland topped the league for 2024. That’s according to recently released government figures. The Office of National Statistics data shows there were 54,428 property transactions north of the border, equating to 15% of the UK total. 

The next highest region for property sales was the South East, with 14% of the total. Third was the North West, at 11%. Northern Ireland saw least properties sold, with a percentage rate of just 3.4%. Despite this, Belfast was the UK city in which most homes were sold, at 7333 properties. Second was Edinburgh and third, Glasgow. A total of 3994 properties were sold in Leeds, England’s highest city total, outside London.

ONS: Property 18.2 Times Above Household Income

More than one quarter of surveyors reported a rise in property prices in their region during November. That compared to just 16% of members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) in October.

The statistics bode well for the first few months of next year. That’s when the market is expected to speed up as would-be buyers try to beat the Stamp Duty changes at the start of April.

Property Portal Rightmove’s Tim Bannister reported recently that he expected the whole of 2025 to be a busy year for house transactions, predicting there would be around 1.15 million completed.

But senior economist at Rics, Tarrant Parsons, didn’t share his optimism. He believes currently high interest rates and the broader macroeconomy will still make buyers hesitate on such large purchases.

His concerns are borne out by figures released by the Office for National Statistics this week. The government data showed that the cost of the average property in England last year was 18.2 times above typical household income of £34,569. That was for the year to March last year while, at the same time, the typical property was valued at £298,000 – a ratio of 8.6. For poorer households the ratio was 18.2.

Mortgage rates to fall next year

Fixed mortgage rates are currently around 4.83% and 5.08% per cent for five-year and two-year products respectively. It’s expected these will reduce to around 4% by the end of 2025. They may even reduce in 2026, but analysts don’t expect them to fall to pre-cost of living rates. The expectation they will fall though is prompting more people to take out two-year mortgages.

More first-time buyers than last year

Rightmove reports there are 13% more first-time buyer enquiries than there were at the same time last year. Rents continue to rise, although Rics reported a 1% drop in enquiries list month. This may, of course, be due to the time of year.

In order to battle the house crisis Sir Keir Starmer has recently vowed to build 300,000 new homes annually. The previous Conservative government promised similar construction figures but 200,000 was the highest number of homes built in any one year.

Property Prices to Rise 2.5% Next Year

Property prices are set to rise by 2.5% in 2025. 

That’s according to online property portal Zoopla. Their latest Housing report also predicted a 5% increase in the number of homes swapping hands in 2025. That equates to around 1.1 million properties – 10% more homes than were sold in 2023.

Property prices rose by 1.5% from October 2023 to the same period in 2024. The portal now assesses the average property in the UK at £263,300 – a jump of £3,900.

Changing demographic introducing more homes to market

The stamp duty changes in April next year, together with higher household income and reduced mortgage rates are believed to have stimulated the market in recent weeks. But an ageing population looking to downsize and the continuation of hybrid working is also making its mark, by introducing more second homes. Landlords have also been selling off rental properties at a greater rate than before thanks to various fiscal changes, including increased tax on second homes.

Zoopla’s exec direction Richard Donnell said areas benefitting from the rise in prices were more likely to be Scotland, Wales, the North and the Midlands. Southern England and London would prove too costly for many people, especially first-time buyers.

Areas which benefitted most from buyer demand

The Zoopla report also identified those areas where house prices had risen most over the past year. The North West and North East of England were top of the list, with property price rises of 2.9% and 2.6% respectively. Scotland was next with a jump of 2.3% in house prices (in Wales property increased 2.1%). Both the West Midlands and Yorkshire and the Humber saw a 2.1% rise in prices.

In London property valuations rose by 1.1%. The figure for the South West was 0.4%, which both the South East of England and East of England saw a minimal 0.3% rise in prices.

Increase in mortgage approvals

As expected, due to increased activity in the property market, more mortgages were approved last month – the largest amount for more than two years. The Bank of England signed of 68,303 in October. That’s a 3.3% increase on the previous month and the fifth consecutive month of growth.

More Property Buyers Than in the Past Two Years

There are more prospective house buyers in the UK right now than there has been in the last two years.

That’s the findings from the latest Propertymark report. The estate agents’ membership body says the number of buyers per branch totals 96 individuals, couples or families.

It also found that property sales were around 10% higher this summer than the same period in 2023. Other findings from the report include a £5,618 rise in the value of property in England over the past 12 months. The number of mortgages granted is also on the rise.

Another report, this time by the government’s Office of National Statistics showed the value of the average UK property in September this year was £292,000. That’s a yearly increase of 2.9%. 

All property types increased in value

All types of property had increased in value over the past 12 months. Detached were sitting at an average cost of £470,000. The average semi-detached was £298,000 (with a jump 3.4% over the past year, that proved the biggest increase). The average terraced property came in at around £257,000, while a flat or maisonette was typically worth around £254,000.     

The average cost of property for a first-time buyer in September was £259,000 – although that’s an increase of 2.9% over the past year, it’s a drop of 0.2% from August. The typical cost of a New Build property in July this year was £250,000 – that’s a whopping 22.8% higher on the previous year’s price.

Analysts point to reversal of the Stamp Duty discounts in April spurring potential buyers on now. They also attribute the higher figures to a fall in mortgage interest rates this year. Some lenders are even suggesting there may be another Bank of England base rate cut when the figure comes up for scrutiny again in December.

Nathan Emerson, Propertymark CEO says she is confident of the increased activity in the market continuing.

“With more appetite from buyers comes more homes coming onto the market, so we expect to see activity accelerate over the coming months moving into 2025,” she said.

RICS Report A Strengthening Property Market

The latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey, published this week, backs up the notion of a strengthening property market. 

Buyer demand is up for the fourth month in a row, with an increased 12% of surveyors reported an increase in new enquiries over the past month. An additional 16% of surveyors reported a growth in house prices. Only two regions saw a drop in prices – Yorkshire and the Humber, with a fall of 23%, while 4% of surveyors in the South West also reported a fall in property values.

Surveyors in both Scotland and Northern Ireland expect to see strong growth in the coming months, especially in the run up to the Stamp Duty deadlines in April when rates will revert to their previous cut-off points. 

Rental market chasm grows

The situation isn’t quite as healthy in the rental market however, where tenant demand still significantly outstrips supply. Around 29% of surveyors reported a drop in new landlord instructions and, at the same time, 19% said they’d seen a rise in tenant demand over the last few months. The result being that one third of surveyors expect rents to rise in the first quarter of 2025.

RICS president Tina Paillet said their data showed renters were feeling the pressure. And it didn’t look like easing any time soon.

“The Autumn Budget’s immediate stamp duty increases for landlords acquiring rental properties may increase opportunities in supply for owner-occupiers, but it will make it more challenging to address the critical shortage of rental homes,” she said.

Landlords continue to sell off properties

This is backed up by a survey published today which shows around 40% of landlords plan to sell rental properties over the next 12 months. The survey, by Pegasus Insight, and commissioned by the National Residential Landlords Association, also showed that 19% had already sold off some of their rental properties over the past year. This contrasted with 8% who had bought properties over the same time frame.

Ben Beadle, Chief Executive of the National Residential Landlords Association, said: “Tenants the length and breadth of the country know that there are not enough homes to rent.”

He added: “Whilst landlords selling up might benefit a minority of tenants in a position to afford a home of their own, the vast majority will face a growing struggle to access rental homes.”

Lower Mortgage Interest Rates and More Stock Lead to a Buyers’ Market

As expected, the Bank of England declared a second base rate cut this week, reducing the amount from 5% to 4.75%. 

This is due to a lowered inflation figure, which is now sitting at less than 2%. It’s a rate which the Office of Budget Responsibility say could last until 2029, giving homebuyers renewed confidence of stable mortgage interest rates for the foreseeable future. The Bank’s first base rate cut this year was in August when it fell from 5.25% to 5%.

In anticipation of a 0.25% drop, mortgage rates had already begun falling in recent weeks. They are expected to go down even further in the next few days and weeks, giving a welcome injection to the property market. At the moment mortgage rates are the lowest for two years. 

Base rate predictions for a longer trajectory

The base rate is expected to continue to fall over time, but this will be at a slower pace than previously predicted, following Labour’s ambitious borrowing and spending plans in the recent Budget.

Not only are there more properties coming on to the market – to the extent it is fast becoming a buyer’s market – but mortgage approvals too are on the up. October was in fact, the fourth month in a row where, with a total of 65,647 mortgages given the green light, figures have surpassed those of the previous month. 

House prices at highest rate ever

Meanwhile, house prices reached their highest total ever in October, with the average property now sitting at £293,999. That’s according to the latest Halifax House Price Index. The price has increased 3.9% compared to the same period last year. Regionally, the biggest increase was in the north west of England, where the value of property jumped 5.9% year-on-year to £235,587.

The fall in mortgage interest rates isn’t the only fuel being added to the property market fire, however. The looming stamp duty deadline of April 1 is also accelerating growth. That’s because buyers are looking to secure a housing deal before stamp duty relief rates revert to their previous higher levels. Expect much activity from now and well on into 2025.

Government Stats Show Summer House Price Increase 

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics this week show property prices rose 2.8% from August 2023 to the same month in 2024. 

The official statistics – which are reported every quarter – don’t deviate greatly from recent house price indexes and show that the market is indeed ‘on the up.’ House prices were, in fact, around £8000 higher than the previous year, bringing the cost of the average property to £292,924. August was the sixth month in a row in which property prices were higher on a year by year basis. 

North West of England shows biggest jump in prices

In terms of regional variation, the biggest prices jumps were in the North West of England. There the average property jumped by 4.5% to £225,248.

The poorest property price rises over that 12-month period to August 2024 were in the South West, where property jumped just 0.8% to £320,774.

Analysts attribute the growth in property prices to increased interest in the market, thanks to lower mortgage interest costs and a settled economy with Labour proving triumphant in the general election. Added to this, interest rates are predicted to fall even further before the end of the year – thanks to an expected Bank of England base rate cut.

Property prices expected to remain stable for remainder of year

The increased interest in the market isn’t expected to wane up any time soon, meaning house prices are expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future.

Marc von Grundherr, Director of capital estate agents’ Benham and Reeves, isn’t expecting the upcoming Autumn Statement to bring any property purchasing incentives. 

He added: “The housing market is likely to march on undeterred and we’re set for a very strong end to the year, despite the usual seasonal lull that comes with the Christmas period.”

And, of course, it wasn’t just in England that house prices exceeded their previous peak. Property in Northern Ireland rose by 6.4% year-on-year to £185,025. In Scotland the jump was 5.4% to an average £199,971 and in Wales, bricks and mortar investments rose 3.5% to £222,925.

Buy to Let Landlords Benefit from Increased Demand

An increase in the sale of second homes is putting up rental demand. 

Changes to tax regulations and a possible increase in capital gains tax has seen landlords list their properties – to the extent almost one third of all properties listed last month were second homes. That in itself could signal an increase in existing rents as demand begins once again to far outstrip supply. 

Majority of surveyors expect property prices to rise

The findings, from the latest report of The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) backed up other house index figures released last week from the Nationwide and property portal Zoopla. They pointed to an accelerated UK property market – one in which property prices were expected to rise over the next year, according to more than half of surveyors interviewed. 

Analysts refer to reduced mortgage interest rates as the kickstart the market needed. And these rates are expected to fall even further with expectations that the Bank of England will reduce its base rate by a quarter percent in early November. The Bank cut it from 5.25% in August – the first reduction in four and a half years. 

Meanwhile Finance Minister Rachel Reeves warns she may increase capital gains tax from 33 per cent to 39 per cent in the budget at the end of this month.

Difficulties for today’s first-time buyers put into perspective

From second home owners to first time buyers, upmarket estate agency Hamptons this week showed just how difficult it is to access the property market today. 

Their report showed that the typical mortgage payment for Generation Z (who were born in the late 1990s) is double that paid by previous generations. The typical sum for Generation Z is £1,739 a month. Millennials have had it much easier. Those born in the 1980s pay roughly £863 a month, while Baby Boomers (born in the 1960s) have been enjoying much lower mortgage costs of £775 on average.

Not surprisingly, the costs are down to a mixture of house price increases far outstripping inflation.

What every landlord needs to know about the perils of underinsurance

Author: Taznin Ahmed

If there’s one thing that can cause consternation and anxiety for both landlords and the specialist brokers that arrange their property insurance, it’s the perils, problems and fallout associated with underinsurance.

When someone needs to submit a claim on their property, the first question is naturally “Am I insured?” and if yes, question number two will invariably be “Am I insured for enough?”. What you don’t want to discover at this point is that you don’t have adequate or correct cover for a full payout, or even a partial payout.

Let’s start with a summary of what underinsurance is, how it occurs, and the problems it causes, before looking at how it affects property and buildings insurance, related costs, plus explore examples that reflect some of the less desirable outcomes. Then we’ll explore why partnering with a specialist let property insurance broker and taking out landlord insurance can provide you with peace of mind and avoid all this trouble in the first place.

The true cost and meaning of underinsurance

Underinsurance occurs when a policy’s cover level equates to less than the total value of a potential claim. For example, you own and rent out a property that’s insured for £200,000 in total. A fire at your building not only destroys the building, but also everything within it that you’ve contributed in terms of contents for those renting. When the post-incident numbers are calculated, the full complete value is creeping up close to £400,000 – creating a big difference of £200,000 or, to look at it another way, 50 per cent underinsurance.

And let’s say you’ve installed approved fire alarms and other methods designed to protect your property and meet the requirements of insurers, but if the value originally submitted is under, there may be big problems ahead in terms of rebuild and recovery costs.

The insurer, in this case, would only be liable for 50 per cent of the actual claim and would therefore only pay £100,000 to the insured. So, although the difference is 50 per cent, what is received by the insured property owner is just 25 per cent of the total claim value – which financially, is a huge shortfall.

If you’re reading this as a landlord and hoping it never happens to you, it’s worth considering there’s nothing personal nor arbitrary about this. An insurer is not short-changing a claimant for the sake of it – they’re simply upholding the fundamental principles of the insurance industry. And a decent landlord insurance broker will ensure that you’re not in the dark about any of this.

That’s why we’re reiterating why you need to get your rented property insurance in order and work with an insurance specialist who is experienced in getting the numbers right for their clients.

And with 70 per cent of properties overall being underinsured in the UK (so for the 2.5 million landlord properties, that equates to 1.75 million properties underinsured), that’s a whole lot of property people taking a risk.

Understanding the average rule

This the perfect juncture to reiterate the place and meaning of the ‘average rule’ or ‘average clause’ principle in underinsurance. Insurers – especially those dealing in property and buildings policies – use this equation to calculate claims and decide what your final payout will be if it turns out you’re underinsured.

Put simply, when the amount you’re insured by is less than the actual value of the property, an insurer may reduce a payout proportionally. Let’s suppose a property is insured for 50 per cent of its actual value, then, if there is a loss, your insurer may only cover and pay up to 50 per cent of the claim. Therefore the ‘average clause’ when considered, means policyholders must properly insure their property in the first instance, thus avoiding being penalised if there’s a claim.

In some instances, the insurer may be entitled to void the policy altogether if it materialises that the risk was unfairly presented. We’ve used the example of 50 per cent to keep the numbers straightforward, but at that level of underinsurance, the insurer could deem it reckless and possibly deliberate, which gives them the right to completely void the policy under the Insurance Act 2015.

Underinsurance – why it happens

One of the main reasons why people end up with an underinsured property is that they assume the worst will never happen, so why spend money on an unlikely event? As a rationale, this is both weak and naïve – and most experienced landlords know better. In short, if something does happen, insurers have every right to say that this was a failure to accurately declare sums insured.

Other common underinsurance reasons are that a valuation is out of date so inflation and other changes over time haven’t been considered; incorrect calculations were made in the first place; circumstances have changed; and even the increasingly hard market that’s affected all aspects of the insurance sector. And of course, there is plain old forgetfulness… which having read and absorbed this article can be struck off the list!

Also, perhaps there are insufficient limits within the policy, or advice has been sought from an unqualified person or non-specialist insurance broker who fails to make an allowance for the items required to be included within a building’s declared value.

The importance of landlord insurance

Ensuring that you have a specific, watertight, and current insurance policy for each and every one of your rentals is important. Protect My Let offers solutions to mitigate for all of the circumstances that arise when you have a rented property and tenants. Protect My Let is there to make sure you never get caught in the undercurrent of underinsurance. It’s not just the major calamities such as flooding or fire damage that need to be covered. There may be substantial damage to contents and furnishings, defaults on rent payments, or threats to security when keys are passed around. From carpets being ruined, to the white goods you own breaking, adequate landlord insurance removes what could be a substantial cause for worry.

We’d also strongly advise that for any building that you own, you organise a professional and regular reinstatement cost assessment (RCA). This may be included in your insurance policy or as an extra, and it can cost as little as £105 + VAT. Protect My Let work with Barrett Corp & Harrington (BCH) who have extensive experience in rebuild valuations and offer top quality service. They provide hassle-free e-valuations that are designed to establish an accurate rebuild value of your property in a fraction of the time – and, for Protect My Let customers, at a fraction of the cost.

If you’d like to discuss any aspect of rented property underinsurance, or to find out whether your current policy is working for you, talk to the expert team at Protect My Let. Find out whether your insurance policies are as robust as they should be – get in touch with one of our specialist team today on 01206 655 899.

Property Deal Completion: A Realistic Look At Timelines And Stages

Author: Nigel Bowers

In my last article, I introduced the way to approach pitching your property deal to lenders. So, in this issue, we’ll look at how long a typical property deal should take, from inception to completion. Obviously, this will vary greatly, but hopefully this will give you some food for thought.

  1. How Long Should a Deal Take to Complete?

The entire process from inception to completion, can typically take 6– 12 weeks, for a standard property deal. However, various factors can significantly impact the actual timeframe. For instance, the complexity of the project, such as a large-scale development or extensive renovations, may prolong certain stages and extend the overall timeline. Additionally, unforeseen issues like delays in obtaining the necessary approvals, unexpected findings during the valuation process or complications during the legal stage, can further extend the timeline.

2. What to Prepare in Order to Speed up the Process

Preparation is crucial in the pre-approval stage, as gathering and submitting comprehensive information (financial documents, property details, plans, costings, etc.,) can expedite the pre-approval process, which may take 1–5 business days. Conversely, incomplete or inaccurate information can lead to delays and a longer pre-approval stage.

3. What to Expect from a Decision in Principle

The decision in principle stage, where the lender provides preliminary approval subject to further checks, usually takes 1–2 business days. During this stage, the lender reviews the information provided in the pre-approval stage and makes an initial assessment of your eligibility for the loan amount requested. This preliminary approval is subject to additional verification and checks, but it provides an indication of the lender’s willingness to proceed with the loan process.

4. Property Valuations: What Are You Marked On?

The property valuation, conducted by the lender’s chosen valuer, is a critical step that can take 2–3 weeks. The scope of the valuation depends on the nature of the project, such as a refurbishment, new development or investment property. The valuer will assess various factors, including the property’s location, market conditions, potential income (if applicable) and the overall viability of the project. The valuation report is crucial for the lender to determine the property value and the associated risks, which will inform their final lending decision.

5. Loan Processing: Almost At the Final Hurdle

Loan processing, which involves reviewing and verifying the valuation report, requesting any other required reports, such as structural surveys or environmental assessments, depending on the findings or the complexity of the project and can take up to a week or longer. This process ensures that the lender has a comprehensive understanding of the property and any potential risks, before proceeding with the loan approval.

6. Underwriting: The Final Stage Before You Receive Your Offer

The underwriting stage, where the formal loan offer is issued after a thorough review, typically takes 1–3 days. At this point, an underwriter within the lender’s organisation conducts a final, in-depth review of the entire loan application, including all supporting documentation, valuation reports and any additional assessments. If the underwriter is satisfied that all criteria are met, they will issue a formal loan offer, outlining the terms and conditions of the proposed financing.

7. How Having the Right Team Can Speed Up the Process

The legal process, involving both parties engaging legal representatives, to review and facilitate the transfer of ownership, mortgages and other legal documentation, is a crucial but time-consuming stage. Selecting a solicitor with experience in the relevant property type (e.g., commercial, residential or development projects) can ensure a smoother and more efficient legal process, minimising potential delays or complications. This stage can reasonably take around four weeks.

8. Final Approval and Closing

After the legal process is finalised and all necessary documentation is signed, the lender will conduct a final review and issue their final approval. Once approved, the lender will release the funds, allowing the property transaction to be completed and ownership to be transferred. This should only take 1–2 days.

Of key importance is engaging a knowledgeable and proactive broker early in the process. They can be invaluable in pushing for completion as quickly as possible, by coordinating the various stages, ensuring timely submission of documents and addressing any issues that may arise, especially in urgent situations like auction purchases, ultimately helping to streamline the overall process and meet critical deadlines. 

Ask Oxygen

If you need a hand with any current or upcoming property deal, or you just want more information on how lenders and finance work, then get in touch using the details below. I’m always happy to grab a coffee with any reader of Blue Bricks Magazine to offer any help and support I can.

Email: nigel@oxygenfinance.co.uk

Website: askoxygen.co.uk

Tel: 01943 243159

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