sam@bluebricksmagazine.com

Login
Category: Market Pulse

The Changing Map of Britain’s Property Popularity

We knew people were leaving their city pads – and London in particular – to head into the country last year as a result of coronavirus. We just weren’t exactly sure where they were heading. Until now, that is.

The results show that actually, many of them were heading to Cambridge, and the commuter town of Huntingdon in particular. Further north, Pontefract in West Yorkshire was also popular and so too was the Norfolk seaside town Great Yarmouth. 

Those were the top three locations (in order) for property purchased during 2020 in England and Wales according to government statistics and research carried out by specialist mortgage company Haysto.

Paul Coss, specialist mortgage broker at Haysto confirmed Covid-19 had altered the landscape when it came to UK property. 

He added: “I truly believe that when we come out of lockdown and the economy starts to bounce back, this could be a good year to move or get on the property ladder.”

Also hitting the high popularity spots were (also in order) Preston, Chichester, Chorley, Doncaster, Bury St Edmonds, Spalding and Bedford.

The top 10 table was based on the number of properties sold per 10,000 people. The numbers for Huntingdon, with a population of 26,000 people, was 400 properties per 10,000, Pontefract was 328 and Great Yarmouth, 320.

Cities losing out to countryside yearnings

Interestingly, all of the places featuring in the top 10 property popularity purchases – with the exception of Preston and Doncaster – all had populations of less than 100,000. Whereas bigger cities such as Birmingham, Manchester and Portsmouth saw demand for housing fall in comparison. 

The desire to move to more rural locations as a result of increased flexible working and a change of lifestyle, was also noted by popular property portal Rightmove last week. They announced that the most searched for location on its search engine in February was Cornwall, closely followed by Devon. In fact, searches for the village of Stithians near Truro was up 224% compared with last year, just before the pandemic in the UK. Other areas proving popular include the Isle of Skye, Norfolk and quiet villages in neighbouring East Sussex.

Exodus to country affecting commercial property

And it’s not only residential properties in further-flung locations that are proving popular – owners of commercial property have also witnessed a move from city to country. Office space company IWG had noted an additional one-fifth of queries concerned offices in country locations and as much as one-third for suburban offices. In contrast, demand for city offices had fallen by as more than one-tenth.

Whether this continues once lockdown is lifted remains to be seen. Although, new government legislation espousing flexible working is expected to be announced at some point later this year. The Bill, which makes flexible working the default position for companies, was announced in the Queens Speech in 2019. 

It’s believed this will include logging in from home and other forms of remote working. What it means in effect is that companies will have to come up with a good reason not to allow employees to work flexibly. And that can only mean more interest in property in quieter, countryside locations.

Property flipping hits a 12-year high

Property flipping hits a 12-year high

It was the 2008 recession that didn’t so much as put the nail in the coffin for house flipping, but hammered the lid down. As quickly as she’d arrived, house flipper extraordinaire Sarah Beeney exited our screens, leaving us grateful for the fact we still had a roof over our own heads.

But more than a decade later – and notwithstanding a global pandemic – house flipping has fought its way back as a way for property investors to make money. Upmarket estate agent Hamptons International reported that 2020 was set to be a record year for flipping – perhaps reinforced by the not-so-little matter of a brand new TV show with the working title Flipping Fast, which has recently been commissioned by Channel 4. The format follows six contestants – all budding property developers – who are given £100,000 each to buy, refurbish and sell. At the end of a year the individual who’s made the most money is crowned the winner.

Perhaps this new show serves as a good measure of the perceived value in this property investment strategy – a perception certainly reinforced by recent data.

The top spots for flipping

According to Hamptons International, the most successful areas for flipping in terms of numbers of properties flipped are the northeast and the northwest. Their data (gleaned from the Office of National Statistics) revealed that Burnley was the top property-flipping location in Britain; one in 12 houses purchased were sold again within a year. Local developers won’t be too surprised to hear that though – it’s the sixth year running that Burnley has hit the top spot. The next most popular flipping location last year was County Durham, followed by the Midlands.

In terms of profit, however, Rutland in the Midlands tops the chart with an impressive average price increase of £45,269 on flipped properties. Despite being high on the chart in terms of the number of properties flipped, Teesside and County Durham came in with much lower increases in sale price with an average uplift of just £6,100 in Middlesbrough. However, it’s worth considering these uplifts within the context of the overall local market values of the average property so perhaps it’s not as disappointing as it first appears.

The top 10 local authorities with highest proportions of homes flipped during 2020
The top 10 local authorities with highest proportions of homes flipped during 2020
Source: Land Registry and Hamptons International

One in 40 properties flipped nationally in 2020

Looking at the flipping figures nationally, approximately one in 40 properties purchased were flipped last year. Around 23,000 homes were flipped in 2020 – a 12-year record, and a figure well above the 20,857 across 2019. And there is another big difference between 2020 and 2019, too: profit. Developers made an average of £40,995 profit last year, compared with £29,685 the previous year.

The more dilapidated the property, the less competition

In Burnley, 51 properties were flipped with an average £20,643 between the original cost of the property and its new sale price. The vast majority of property purchased in the town was terraced housing selling for around £40,000, and most of these properties were run down.

In fact, the more run-down and dilapidated the property, the higher the potential profit, according to long-in-the-tooth property flippers. That’s because there is less competition for the property in the first place, and there is the potential to add so much more value.

Another tip is for amateur property developers to aim for a minimum profit of at least £20,000 – any less than that and it’s hardly worth getting involved in the first place.

The future of flipping

The big question, of course, is whether this upward trend will continue across 2021 when so many experts are predicting a dip in the property market as a whole. Will this speculation have an impact on the confidence of investors and could it lead to a decrease in profits on flipped properties? All this remains to be seen.

Sellers Still Riding High in Property Stakes

Those looking to sell their current property are perfect placed in the market right now – provided they already have somewhere to move to.

That’s because the latest House Price Index from the property portal Rightmove shows the biggest gap between supply and demand in more than a decade.

It also reveals the website received seven million visits a day last month – an increase of 40% on February last year and before the pandemic and first lockdown had begun to kick-in.

Around 17 viewers per property in Wales

Rightmove executives say there is more buyer interest per property than there has been since 2011 – 34% more, in fact, compared to the same time last year. And in Wales, there are 17 viewers for every property on the market. 

This means, of course, that asking prices have once again increased. Last month they rose 0.8% on the previous month, with the average property in England now sitting at around £321,000. It’s worth noting though that the Rightmove Index bases its scoring on asking prices, rather than what buyers paid for the property. 

The extension of the Stamp Duty Holiday provided impetus for UK property as a whole, while the imminent ending of lockdown is resulting in more sellers – as well as buyers – coming to market. After June the ‘no stamp duty on the first £500,000 of a property’ rule will be amended to the ‘first £250,000’ for a further three months, before reducing to the standard £125,000 in October.

Only in Scotland will the Stamp Duty Holiday end at the end of March, as Chancellor Rishi Sunak originally intended. Finance Secretary Kate Forbes explained that the ‘Holiday’ was introduced in order to ‘shore up’ the property market. That had indeed happened, she said, so there was no need to continue the initiative north of the border. Even during the original ‘Holiday’ period, the threshold for Scotland was only half that of England and Wales, at £250,000.

Housing deficit continually pushing prices up

As has been the case for so long, there remains a housing shortage. This, coupled with continued buyer demand for gardens and bigger homes, is giving sellers the upper-hand. Traditionally Spring has always been the best time to sell and this year looks as if it will be no exception.

Ongoing low interest rates and the introduction of the 95% mortgage initiative – where the government is encouraging lenders to provide high loan-to-value mortgages – is helping to fuel the demand. As well as first-time buyers, the mortgages will also be made available to second steppers looking for a larger home.

Rents income ‘up’ – except in London

Last month a report by upmarket property company Hamptons revealed an 8% increase in rental income in all areas of the UK with the exception of London. That was the highest rise in nearly a decade. 

Rents had actually fallen in the capital by 17.7%. They also fell in Greater London, although to a lesser degree at 0.2% in comparison to the same month in 2020.

A for sale sign outside a house on a street

A round-up of COVID-19 and the property market in 2021 so far

Further alterations and extensions to government policies are expected as Covid-19 continues to take its toll on the property industry.

Help to Buy

Help to Buy is the latest scheme to be extended beyond its original deadline. The first-time buyer financial help scheme, where the government pays some of the deposit on a new property, was due to end in March, but has now been extended to May.

The reason for the extension, according to the government, was because 16,000 sales had been affected owing to construction delays caused by the various lockdowns. Around 278,000 properties have been purchased using the scheme over the past seven years.

Landlords further worried over “No Evictions” extension

Not a scheme, but a policy brought in as a response to lockdown, the “No Evictions” rule for private rented tenants has also been extended until the end of March. It was supposed to end mid-Feb.

The National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA) say there are around 800,000 private renters currently in arrears. A spokesman for the organisation insisted that continually extending the deadline was leading to “mounting debts to the point [renters] have no hope of paying them off”. He called for hardship loans and grants to be extended to landlords to help them cope with their own financial crises as a result.

Tenants also joining “race for space” to rural locations

But not all landlords are suffering as a result of Covid-19 – some are actually benefiting, especially those whose properties lie in more rural locations. For just like buyers, renters too are now looking for bigger gardens and more rooms. The cost of rent is actually falling in built-up areas and rising in countryside locations.

Property portal Zoopla noted that rental prices in upmarket areas such as the City of London and Kensington and Chelsea plummeted 17.3% and 12.3% respectively in 2020 compared with 2019. Similarly, in Greater London, they were down 8.3%. Edinburgh and Manchester experienced similar drops. In Birmingham, tenants are now paying 3.4% less, while in neighbouring Wolverhampton, Sandwell and Bromsgrove they are prepared to pay 5.3% more to live in quieter, greener environments.

Tenants’ property preferences have also changed as a result of lockdown: houses are now in far greater demand than apartments. London landlords saw their apartments take 20% longer to rent compared with houses in the closing months of 2020. The latter were snapped up 10% more quickly than the same time the previous year and 30% faster across the UK as a whole.

Property prices take a dip

Predictably property prices fell in January as many buyers realised their transaction wasn’t going to go through in time to meet the Stamp Duty deadline in March. Both Nationwide and Halifax reported a 0.3% monthly drop in January compared with the previous month. The last recorded drop had been back at the beginning of the first lockdown.

In terms of year-on-year comparisons, Halifax says prices are up 6.4%. However, that figure is expected to drop as the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) survey shows more than a quarter of their members revealed a drop in buyer enquiries during the first month of the year. This is coupled with more than a third of surveyors reporting fewer properties coming on to the market – the first fall since May last year.

Property portal Rightmove also noted a drop in interested buyers and properties coming on the market in January, but said the figures had started to pick up in February, with a 45% rise overall when compared with the same period last year. Purchases were also up 5% year-on-year. They attributed the current lack of properties in part down to the increased number of families having to spend time home schooling.

Lloyds is Latest High-Profile Landlord

Lloyds is the latest familiar High Street name to announce plans to expand into the private rental sector. 

The banking group’s landlord scheme, referred to as Project Generation, involves buying and renting out properties to individuals and families throughout the UK. They intend to have their first tenants moved in by the end of the year.

Low interest rates have hit the banking sector hard in recent months and it’s believed the landlord initiative is a bid to find alternative income to boost profits – in the form of high rental yields and capital appreciation.

According to a recent report in the Financial Times newspaper, senior management at the bank want to become major players in an industry which is regarded by many as ‘fragmented.’ They also believe they can provide a more professional, and quality service than that which currently exists in much of the private rental sector.

The paper reported a Lloyds spokesman saying: “As we stated in our full-year results and our strategic review last week, we are committed to broadening access to home ownership and exploring opportunities to increase our support to the UK rental sector.” 

An opportunity to ‘cross-sell’ products

Lloyds, which owns other well-known financial brands such as the Halifax, Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows, plans on cross-selling loans and insurance to its tenants. 

The company isn’t completely unfamiliar with the housing market, having previously funded small developments. Many of its mortgage clients are also some of the UK’s largest housing developers.

Following in John Lewis’ footsteps

The Lloyds move is following in the footsteps of retail giant John Lewis who announced their intention to become private landlords last October. Again, this was in response to low profits – this time in the failing physical retail sector.

And, like Lloyds, they also have a form of cross-selling in mind where they will furnish the properties with John Lewis products and locate them near existing Waitrose stores (which they also own). The idea is renters will then shop at the supermarket too. 

Unions concerned for bank’s reputation

The Lloyds move hasn’t got everyone’s approval within the company. Independent banking union BTU, which represents many of the bank’s staff, say the landlord move could prove disastrous for Lloyd’s reputation if tenants had unpleasant experiences with those managing the rental properties.

Room for expansion in UK property

Around 5.4m homes in the UK were recorded as privately rented last year. And that figure is only expected to increase over time – despite the government’s new homes’ funding initiatives.

The current biggest provider of private rental property in the UK at the moment is Grainger. It recorded a 45% growth in its rental income in 2019, bringing the figure to £63.5m, with a 30% rise in pre-tax profits sitting at £131.3m. 

The group has developments in Bristol, Manchester and Sheffield. It also has a large presence in London, with a joint venture with Transport for London to create 3,000 new rental homes. It altered its business strategy in 2016 to build on its private rental portfolio, more than doubling its rental stock between then and 2019.

Sunak to Extend Stamp Duty Holiday

He insisted it would never happen, but it now looks as if Rishi Sunak has caved in to demands and agreed to an extension of the Stamp Duty Holiday.

According to a report in today’s Times newspaper, the Chancellor is expected to announce a continuation of the Holiday until the end of June. 

The three-month extension will bring relief to thousands of people currently caught up in property transactions in the UK. It means they’ll continue to benefit from the savings of up to £15,000 on a £500,000 home in England and Northern Ireland.  Current schemes exist in Scotland and Wales, although the savings are less generous.

The extension is believed to be in response to pleas from property analysts concerned at the damage the ‘cliff edge’ ending of the scheme would do the property market. They insisted it would cause thousands of sales to fall through with the Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, predicting a fall in house prices by at least 8% by the end of 2021.

More than 193,000 property buyers to benefit

TwentyCi, the research firm and number crunchers for the property industry, said the extension means savings for the 193,198 house sales that wouldn’t have made the March cut-off period. 

But it means an additional £1 billion bill for the government. This is on top of a predicted extension to the furlough scheme – which Sunak is also expected to announce in his budget on March 3. That was due to end on April 30 with the extension calculated to cost the government around £4 billion a month.

House sales highest since 2007

The Centre for Policy Studies think tank said the Stamp Duty Holiday has pushed the number of house sales up to their highest level since the start of the recession back in 2007. They suggested the increase could be around 140%. Transactions rose from 132,090 between April and June this year to 316,300 in the final quarter of last year.

HMRC figures show there were 129,400 sales in December alone last year. That compared to 87,040 in December 2014. 

Property portal Rightmove said the average number of days for a property to sell fell from 67 days in 2019 to 49 days in November last year. 

Risk ‘Holiday’ may become permanent

But Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, urged Sunak to tread cautiously. He acknowledged that supporting the housing sector was a good move, but warned the chancellor could simply be storing up trouble for himself.

“Whenever it’s withdrawn you risk a period of stagnation and overblown house prices as you get towards the end. Extensions can become permanent,” he said.

Increases to corporation tax to pay for Holiday and Virus

To start to claw back some of the total £300 billion coronavirus spending over the past year, the government is believed to be announcing an increase to Corporate Tax, which currently sits at 19%. Figures circulating in government are 23% or 25%. America has already mulled over the idea of increasing their corporation tax from 21% to 28%.

Manchester rent rates hold firm as city’s housing market proves resilient to pandemic

The Vesper Group has revealed that rent rates in Manchester are proving one of the most resistant to the pandemic in the UK. The property services company has seen average rates drop by just 5% since the beginning of the first lockdown.

The Group reports that the trend is being driven by the city’s ready supply of more spacious and desirable properties, which better allows people to work from home. Manchester is home to one of the largest rental markets in all of the UK, with private renters making up over 30% of the population.* 

Conversely, prime central London rents continue to fall owing to the ongoing student exodus and corporate relocations.

The Group highlighted value-for-money in the market by comparing the price and rental yield of available flats in Manchester and London. A studio flat in Chelsea, currently available for £325,000, generates £950 per month in rent, whereas a one-bedroom flat in Manchester, available for £202,000, yields £1,000 per month.

James Cameron, Vesper Group director, said: “At present the Manchester rental market is proving relatively immune to the pandemic, which demonstrates the area’s economic resilience. In contrast, London is counting the cost of a more transient workforce and population.

“While there’s never room for complacency in the market, especially at present, these figures suggest that demand in Manchester in particular will hold steady for the foreseeable future.”

The Vesper Group, previously Vesper Homes, has offices across the UK and overseas including in London, Manchester, Birmingham, Singapore and the Middle East. It offers a wide variety of property services within the residential sector, including sales and lettings, new homes, and property and block management.

For more information, go to vespergroup.co.uk.

Eviction ban extended until end of March

The ban on evictions in England is to be extended until the end of March, the government has announced.

It means eviction notices, which could have started again from the 22nd February, cannot be served for another six weeks.

Housing Secretary, Robert Jenrick, said it would ensure renters remained protected “during this difficult time”. The eviction ban had been extended from 11th January – the date it was originally due to expire.

Mr Jenrick said the ban on the enforcement of evictions by bailiffs would continue “in all but the most serious cases”.

He added that the government had taken unprecedented action to support renters during the Covid pandemic, and that measures had struck “the right balance between protecting tenants and enabling landlords to exercise their right to justice”.

Shadow housing secretary Thangam Debbonaire said: “Last minute decisions and half-measures from the government are putting people’s homes at risk… Ministers promised nobody would lose their home because of coronavirus, but the current ban isn’t working.”

House Prices Finally Start to Fall

Well, at last it’s happened – UK property prices are on their way down. 

Two lenders this month – Nationwide and the Halifax – both reported a 0.3 % monthly drop in January compared to the previous month.

Halifax said it was the first fall since April last year when COVID-19 began to kick in. Nationwide only puts it back to June. However, despite the discrepancy in when prices started to rise, there is no denying they are now on the downward curve. 

Despite this, Halifax says prices continue to fare better than the previous year – with a 6.4 per cent increase year-on-year.

Slow and steady – or a cliff edge plunge?

Whether that fall is a slow one or a cliff edge, considering the end of the Stamp Duty Holiday at the end of March, remains to be seen. Certainly, the end of the furlough scheme doesn’t bode well either, with thousands of people expected to lose their jobs – and at a time when the economy remains shaky. 

And, despite pleas to continue the Stamp Duty Holiday, the chancellor is believed to be considering increasing Capital Gains Tax. As far as Stamp Duty is concerned he believes it’s a case of ‘Job done and time to move on,’ according to his staff.

Not everyone is pessimistic though. There is a shortage of properties coming on to the market – some estate agents report 70% fewer compared to the previous month – which will always ensure prices remain high. This is especially the case when buyer demand remains strong. The large-scale vaccination roll-out should help kick-start the economy again too.

Jonathan Hopper, CEO of Garrington Property Finders, predicts a “soft landing rather than a crash.”

He explains:Clearly the white-hot pace of price rises seen in the second half of last year is cooling, but with so much pent-up demand in the system, the overall momentum is set to continue.” 

People still desperate to move home

Other property analysts agree – but for different reasons. One broker said he was aware that the effect of COVID-19 and the various lockdowns had forced people to reassess their living conditions long-term. The result was people still wanted to move to larger homes with gardens and outside cities – and this would continue right through 2021 for those who could afford to buy.

Many mortgage brokers are predicting that a poor economy could encourage the Bank of England to drop interest rates even further, resulting in sub 1% mortgage loans by summer.

And yet, there were more mortgage approvals in 2020 than in the previous year, according to the latest Bank of England figures. 

More bad news for first time buyers

Another plus for the property market is the knowledge that it costs more to rent than it does to buy. Whether that helps first time buyers get on the market though is debatable, especially in light of a recent estate agent survey which showed house prices had risen far above average earning potential. Benham and Reeves reported it as the biggest gap in a decade.

The average income last year was around £25,123 and the average house price at £249,633. That puts house prices at 10 times the typical salary, with an entire year’s salary needed for a deposit.

More Power to Pets in Tenancy Rights

From today landlords will no longer be able to refuse a tenant with a pet from renting their property – unless they have a very good reason.

Changes to the government’s new Model Tenancy Agreement puts an end to blanket bans on cats, dogs, rabbits, guinea pigs and other animals. Most landlords automatically exclude pets when letting out their house or flat on the grounds the animal may cause damage or annoy neighbours. Now they will no longer be able to do this.

Landlords have 28 days to lodge pet objection

That’s because from today, the right for a tenant to live with a pet will be the default position. A landlord who insists he or she doesn’t want their tenant’s pet in their property will have 28 days to write to their tenant and outline why they feel this way. 

But that reason has to be a good one, such as the property being too small to house a large dog or the sheer impracticality of having a pet. A continually barking dog annoying neighbours may also qualify as a justifiable reason.

Only 7% of tenancies ‘pet-friendly’

At present, figures show more than 50% of householders have a pet and yet only 7% of private landlords advertise their property as ‘pet-friendly.’

The move was introduced by Housing minister, Rt Hon Christopher Pincher who noted that over the past year in particular pets have brought comfort to many householders.

 “But it can’t be right that only a tiny fraction of landlords advertise pet friendly properties and, in some cases, people have had to give up their beloved pets in order to find somewhere to live,” he said.

He went on to add: “This strikes the right balance between helping more people find a home that’s right for them and their pet while ensuring landlords’ properties are safeguarded against inappropriate or badly-behaved pets.”

Move applies to “responsible” owners 

Pincher pointed out the ruling is for “responsible” owners with “well-behaved” pets. Landlords will still be able to claim compensation through the tenancy deposit for damage caused by pets, such as chewed skirting boards and torn curtains etc.

Landlord and estate agent representatives, such as Mark Hayward, chief policy adviser at Propertymark, admitted having a pet in a property would probably encourage a tenant to stay there longer. 

Landlord agent question tenancy deposit cap

But he questioned whether pets being the default position in a Tenancy Agreement was a good idea considering the government’s current cap on a tenant’s deposit. 

“…even the best-behaved pets will have an impact on a property,” he said. 

He also objected to the blanket ban saying the issue was far more complex and that it should really be determined on an individual basis. Concerned landlords, he said, should approach their letting agent for advice.

At present the changes to the right for tenants to own a pet when renting apply only to tenancies in England. However, they may also be rolled out in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in due course if the move proves successful.

Privacy Settings
We use cookies to enhance your experience while using our website. If you are using our Services via a browser you can restrict, block or remove cookies through your web browser settings. We also use content and scripts from third parties that may use tracking technologies. You can selectively provide your consent below to allow such third party embeds. For complete information about the cookies we use, data we collect and how we process them, please check our Privacy Policy
Youtube
Consent to display content from - Youtube
Vimeo
Consent to display content from - Vimeo
Google Maps
Consent to display content from - Google