House prices are teetering on the edge of a fall, while the cost of a mortgage in the UK is increasing. 

The most recent figures from the Halifax show property price increases are flatlining; April’s increase for the average property was a mere 0.1 per cent compared to the same time in 2022. And, with the rapid rise of inflation in comparison, it means prices are, in reality, much lower. 

Cost of New Builds up 3.5 per cent

Looking at individual sectors, the cost of a New Build has actually risen over the past 12 months, by 3.5 per cent. Another positive figure is for property in the West Midlands, which has seen a jump of 3.1 per cent. 

Yesterday’s rise in interest rates, by 0.25 per cent, bringing the figure to 4.5 per cent, is exacerbating the issue of falling property costs. That’s because higher interest rates make buying less palatable. At the same time re-mortgaging becomes far more expensive. 

This is evidenced by the recent RICS survey which showed estate agents have more properties on their books. The average estate agent had 36 homes in April, compared to 35 for the previous two months. The reason being less buyer demand.

Buyers looking for smaller homes 

A squeezing of household finances has also led to a trend in people looking for smaller homes (ie with one bedroom less than in the past). Energy efficient New Builds are also featuring highly on buyers’ ‘want lists.’ 

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist, said: “Buyer demand still appears to be subdued in the face of relatively high borrowing costs… and ongoing affordability challenges.”

Although Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said he expected prices to fall this year, it wouldn’t be by much. He quoted a figure of around three per cent, saying the market would be buoyed by plenty of employment, large amounts of housing equity and people still sitting on impressive savings they garnered during lockdown.

Stammer to hit foreign buyers 

Labour’s Keir Stammer meanwhile threw a spanner into the works of property buying strategies of overseas buyers, this week. He announced that were his party to gain control of government he would impose new restrictions on foreign investors. This includes raising foreign buyer Stamp Duty yet again (it’s currently at two per cent) and curbing the number of properties they can buy on a development. 

Stammer says he also wants to give priority to first-time buyers. He would achieve this, he said, by allowing them a ‘buyers window’ for up to six months (or a time agreed by individual local authorities). In other words, only first-time buyers would be allowed to purchase for a set time. 

Rishi Sunak has already been criticised by some of his party for dropping national house-building targets – especially in light of the poor Conservative election results last week.

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UK property prices are on the rise again – albeit on a monthly basis and by just 0.2 per cent.

The increase was from March to April, reports Rightmove. And, although positive for homeowners, is still 1.7 per cent lower than in the same period last year. The cost of the average property overall in the UK is now around £366,247.

It’s all about competitive pricing for spring, insists Rightmove’s Tim Bannister.

The property portal director said: “Many sellers have transitioned out of the frenzied multi-bid market mindset of recent years and understand the new need to tempt spring buyers with a competitive price.”

The pace of the property market, he says, is similar to that pre-pandemic. In fact, sales were 18 per cent lower than in spring 2022.

First-time buyers face price hikes

Meanwhile, one sector of the property market where prices aren’t particularly competitive, is the first-time buyer market. That’s because the price of one to two-bedroom properties has jumped two per cent compared to spring last year. It brings the asking price for the average first-time buyer home (ie those with one and two bedrooms) to £224,963.

Conversely, sales for ‘second stepper’ homes ie those with three to four bedrooms and a garden and four per cent less their pre-pandemic figure. 

City living is becoming appealing again

And talking of lockdown, now that more people are going back into the office, the yearning for city living is becoming ‘a thing’ once again. Property researchers TwentyCi say sales in cities, particularly inner London, are on the rise. In fact, it’s 5.8 per cent more than in 2019. The prices are rising due to investment from foreign buyers. 

Meanwhile, London lettings and estate agent Benham and Reeves has identified a gap of more than 34 per cent between seller expectations and what buyers are prepared to pay. The average approval price being around £271,098 compared to the seller’s asking price of £363,416. It’s the biggest gap since the market was in full flourish during the height of pandemic in autumn 2020.

North East sees most UK property sales

Most property sales over the last quarter have been in the North East of England (an increase of seven per cent). Scotland was the only other area to experience an increase in sales numbers. The biggest drop in sales was in the East Midlands, at 15.3 per cent. The previously popular South East saw sales drop six per cent.

The North East saw the biggest uplift in agreed sales at seven per cent, while Scotland saw a small increase at 1.4 per cent. 

Other regions recorded by TwentyCi reported a decline in sales agreed when compared to 2019, ranging from a drop of six per cent in the South East to a fall of 15.3 per cent in the East Midlands. The figures, a spokesman for TwentyCi said, pointed to a recalibration in the market, rather than an all-round freefall. 

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An increasing number of sellers are withdrawing their properties from the market.

More than one third of sellers removed their property from marketing websites last month – the highest number since September 2020. The reason for the fall is down to buyers offering sums much lower than hoped for by the seller.

The research, by property researchers TwentyCi, shows buyers are hoping to cash in on the slowing down of the property market. This, however, is having a negative effect since it means fewer properties are available to buy and those that are listed, are more likely to retain their price. Overall though, the result, is increasing stagnation in the marketplace.

Analysts are confident that many of these withdrawn properties will come back onto the market in the spring, when the activity is traditionally strongest. The majority of withdrawn properties are in central London where prices are highest. Sellers there tend to be able to afford to ‘wait it out.’

Shrinking market caused by ‘over-inflated’ prices

One reason for sellers withdrawing their properties is that they were merely’ testing out’ the market anyway with an over-inflated price. In other words, they were in no hurry to move. Other genuine sellers are realising they’ve missed the price bonanza and removing property in order to rethink their strategy. Certainly, with mortgage rates expected to fall as the year goes on, there is hope the market with enjoy a revival of buyers.

Figures from the government’s Office for Budget Responsibility, revealed last week, show property prices are expected to fall by around 10 per cent from their peak last year. This is an increase of one per cent greater than was previously predicted.

Poor Ofsted ratings affecting house prices

Meanwhile house sellers who live in the vicinity of a state school with a failing Ofsted record, may be forced to take £20,000 of the price of their property.

The government’s school grading system is having a marked effect on house prices, says a survey by Hamptons estate agents. Their research shows that the price of properties with a catchment area for a school that had been downgraded by just one point (ie from ‘good’ to ‘needs improvement’) were two per cent lower than their nearby equivalents.

A two grade-drop was even more detrimental to sellers, with a five per cent drop in the value of their property. That’s an average of around £20,171.

Around 80 per cent of top rated schools downgraded

The schools Ofsted inspectors graded had all been marked as ‘outstanding’ in 2012. But, a decade later, up to 80 per cent of these education establishments had been downgraded. Four per cent had been re-graded as “inadequate.” In one area – Plymouth with Millbay Academy – house prices fell by 11 per cent last year.

Of course, the converse is true too. A one grade improvement can result in a property price boost of £4,731 (one per cent), while property sellers in an area where a school has received a two-grade boost can expect to sell for, on average, an additional £22,088 (or six per cent).

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Around 442,000 homes would need to be built annually for the next 25 years in order to relieve the UK’s housing crisis. That’s according to a report by the leading economic think tank for cities and town centres. 

The Centre for Cities analysis shows the UK is short of 4.3 million homes. With the government’s promise to build 300,000 homes a year, it would take 50 years to fix. Worst hit is the Greater South East, while in England as a whole a typical house is more than 10 times the average salary.

UK’s housing crisis dates back to post-WW2

The report says Britain’s housing supply problem dates back to 1947 and the introduction of the Town and Country Planning Act. This is contrary to the belief by many that it was the Tory government’s Right to Buy legislation, introduced in the 1980s, that was the main culprit, particularly since council house building was also cut back at the time.

Comparing the UK’s housing history with that of it is continental neighbours, the report points to a drop in house building of more than one third after the introduction of the 1947 Act. It went from a housing growth of two per cent a year up to 1939 and to 1.2 per cent from 1947 to today.

Call for change to current planning system

Changing the discretionary planning system that local authorities currently use, to a new rules-based, flexible zoning system would greatly improve the rate of new house building, insists the organisation.

Andrew Carter, Chief Executive, Centre for Cities said: “UK planning policy has held back the economy for nearly three quarters of a century, stifling growth and exacerbating a housing crisis that has blighted the country for decades.

“Big problems require big solutions and if the Government is to clear its backlog of unbuilt homes, it must first deliver planning reform.”

Sellers reducing property prices by around 4.5 per cent

Meanwhile, for those who do have a property and are looking to sell, be prepared to reduce the asking price by around £14,000. That’s according to property portal Zoopla’s latest report which shows sellers are cutting prices by an average of 4.5 per cent. In London and the South East of England the cut is slightly bigger – at 5.5 per cent.

The reason for this is isn’t just the cooling off of the market, but the fact there are more homes for sale. According to Zoopla most estate agents these days have around 24 properties for sale. That compares to just 15 for the same period last year. As a result, nearly half of sellers (40 per cent) have been forced to lower the price of their property in order to secure a sale.

But, considering the average property rose by just over 20 per cent during the pandemic (resulting in an average gain of more than £48,000), the current cut shouldn’t be particularly hard-going for long-term home owners.

Richard Donnell, executive director of Zoopla says he expects a ‘soft landing’ for the property market this year, with property price falls of no more than five per cent.

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