Is Bank of England Interest Rise Final Curb on Property Prices?
The rise in the bank of England interest rate has put what appears to many property analysts as ‘the final nail in the coffin’ for rising house prices in the UK.
The expected increase of 0.25 per cent to the base rate – and which was confirmed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey earlier today – means the rate now sits at one per cent. And it’s not likely to stop there. Economists predict the rate could increase to as much as three per cent by 2023 in an effort from the bank to curb rising UK inflation.
In the meantime, house owners taking out a new mortgage and those without a current fixed deal can expect to see a jump in their monthly house payments. The rise of 0.25 per cent sees an increase of £47 on a £475,000 mortgage, for instance. With a three per cent interest rate that figure would rise to more than £600 – something many households would find unaffordable.
Of course, the rising mortgage interest rates come amid a rise in the cost of living for UK families. This is combined with escalating costs for gas, electricity and oil. All of which could force some families to downsize by selling their existing home. That, in turn, could have a knock-on effect on house prices, causing them to fall. Buy to let landlords could also be on the receiving end when tenants can no longer afford to pay the high rents being asked for in some cities, such as London, Cambridge and Edinburgh, as well as in South East England.
Existing homeowners who have fixed deals won’t be affected by the increase in the bank’s base rate in the short term. But they will find a big jump in their mortgage payments when they come to re-mortgage in a year or two’s time.
Property searches fall to lockdown level
The interest rate rise comes as Google searches for two of the UK’s biggest online property portals – Rightmove and Zoopla – were down just over 11 per cent in April. That was compared to March and is a figure far below that of November 2021. In fact, the search data was similar to the numbers searching when the property market closed down during the pandemic in May 2020.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also resulting in supply chain shortages, causing further economic turmoil in certain quarters, particularly the manufacturing sector. Consumer confidence, it appears, has plummeted.
A spokesman for Built Place residential analysts said rising rental arrears could also result in not just residential homeowners, but also landlords having to sell their buy to let properties.
He added: “I am most concerned about the rental market in the short term. Renters pay a higher share of their income on their housing costs. They are much more likely to be stretched by the cost of living crisis.”
Some analysts predict that quarterly house price growth – which was 3.5 per cent from January to March, will fall to around zero per cent by the beginning of July.
UK Buy-to-Let Private Rental Market at Record High
Around 8.7 million flats and houses in the UK are private rentals. That’s equivalent to around one third of all homes in the four nations.
The growth is believed to be due to an increase in the number of tenants who, having been priced out of the housing market, are renting long-term. And yet, it comes at a time when local authorities are putting more restrictions on landlords in terms of selective licensing.
UK private rental market worth £1.7trn
Octane Capital, who carried out the research, reckon the UK private rental market is now worth around £1.7trn. That means it has grown by £239bn since 2016. At a total worth of £500bn London properties are top of the rental market. That’s due to the high prices in the capital, together with the fact that it has around 20 per cent of all the UK’s privately rented properties/
Jonathan Samuels, chief executive at Octane Capital, said he can foresee the private rental market growing even bigger.
“Long-term renting is becoming more prevalent as a lifestyle choice,” he said. “It is already a commonplace occurrence in nations such as Germany where nearly half of all homes are privately rented. A similar trend emerging in the UK, will result in the buy to let sector continuing to swell in size.”
The majority of landlords have benefitted greatly from capital appreciation – particularly in recent months as house prices escalated. But many have also suffered void periods during the pandemic. Cuts to tax relief and an increased three per cent stamp duty on second homes have had a similarly negative effect.
More licensing restrictions introduced
Now landlords in 11 areas of the UK will be faced with tougher buy to let restrictions. Affecting landlords in seven local authority areas in April, the new selective and additional licensing schemes will hit landlords in Bristol (two schemes), Charnwood, Durham, Ealing, Lewisham, Liverpool and Luton.
This is highlighted by geospatial technology firm Kamma. The company’s CEO Orla Shields said they had already identified nine new schemes for 2022, meaning there will have been 20 new licensing restrictions in force during the first four months of the year.
The cost of licenses vary between local authority areas, but landlords who fail to license their buy to let properties can face fines of up to £30,000 in some cases (especially when it comes to HMO licencing).
In addition to licenses for large HMOs, in some areas licenses are also needed for small HMOs and even standard buy to let rentals. In Liverpool around 80 per cent of the city’s privately rented properties require a licence.
Continued need for private rental properties
Meanwhile, estate agency regulatory body Propertymark say their latest research on the private rented sector highlights an increase in prospective tenants. To the extent that members have been reporting the number of tenants looking for property is 20 times higher than availability.
Despite this, the government look unlikely to make it easier for private landlords to thrive. The latest rumours include increasing capital gains tax – yet another unwelcome hit for the buy to let market.
Market Pulse Round Up March/April 2022
Record monthly increase in property prices
Despite the ongoing rise in the cost of living, looming increases in energy bills, and uncertainty across financial markets, the price of property in the UK continues to rise.
At least that’s what the findings from property portal Rightmove’s House Price Index shows. February saw growth at 2.3%, which amounts to around £7,800, and it looks like property prices in March could follow suit.
Average home nudging £350,000 mark
According to Nationwide’s latest UK House Price Index, property is now around 20% more expensive than it was before the pandemic. It found that the average house price in the UK has increased in value by nearly £30,000 since February last year and more than £44,000 than in the same month in 2020. That makes houses more than 6.5 times the average UK take-home pay.
This growth in property price was the largest monthly increase since 2001, which is when Rightmove began recording its data. This works out as an annual increase of 9.5% over the past two decades.
Based on asking prices from 13,000 estate agencies around the UK, the survey’s figures show the cost of the average home in Britain is now £348,800.
A look back at property values in London over the past two years, since the UK first locked down in March 2020, shows an average increase of £40,000 for homes in the capital.
Analysts blame the shortage of available stock across the UK for pushing prices up, alongside low mortgage interest rates (the Bank of England raised them from 0.1 to 0.25% at the end of last year).
Samuel Tombs of economic research consultancy Pantheon macroeconomics predicts interest on the typical two-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to double in June in comparison with September 2021. This, the economist insisted, will slow down any rising property growth.
Renters paying more for city living
But it’s not just buyers who are paying more for a new roof over their heads. According to recent findings by property portal Zoopla, city-centre rents are up by £62 per month compared with pre-pandemic amounts, and it’s even tougher in London. According to Rightmove, the average monthly rent in the capital has hit a new record high of £2,142.
However, Zoopla’s statistics also showed that demand for rental accommodation was up by as much as 76% at the start of the year, compared with the same period between 2018 and 2021. As people start returning to city centres, we’re once again seeing a growing interest in major cities, such as London, Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds and Edinburgh.
Grainne Gilmore, head of research at Zoopla, said: “The flooding of rental demand back into city centres thanks to office workers, students and international demand returning to cities means the post-pandemic recalibration of the rental market is well underway.”
Increase in companies looking to lease office space
Meanwhile, the demand for office space is also increasing as companies try and tempt their staff back to city-centre working.
An earlier report by Rightmove that centred on commercial property reported an increase in business owners looking to lease office space. Whilst its unsurprising demand between 2022 and January 2021 has seen a 54% jump, what is striking is that interest in commercial leasing this quarter is 15% greater than this time in 2019.
Inflation still to make its mark on property market
Nationwide’s chief economist, Robert Gardner, commented that he was surprised inflation hadn’t appeared to hit the property market yet.
“The continued buoyancy of the housing market is a little surprising, given the mounting pressure on household budgets from rising inflation, which reached a 30-year high of 5.5% in January, and since borrowing costs have started to move up from all-time lows in recent months,” he said.
“The strength is particularly noteworthy since the squeeze on household incomes has led to a significant weakening of consumer confidence.”
Property prices to drop after summer
However, business analysts warn, a fall in house prices is likely towards the latter half of the year with some suggesting they could drop by as much as a tenth in a year. Those most likely to be affected are those who overstretched in order to meet the stamp duty deadline, together with first-time buyers (for the same reason).
Karl Thompson, of think tank the Centre for Economics and Business Research, predicts a drop of 1.5% every three months from September onwards. That’s then expected to fall 1% every year for the foreseeable future.
Andrew Wishart, of economic research consultancy Capital Economics, was more optimistic, and he predicted property prices would “stagnate rather than collapse in 2023”.
Ukraine crisis contributing to higher UK living costs
When it comes to the cost of living, the war in Ukraine has had an impact on petrol and fuel costs across Europe. Many economists warn that, in turn, the Bank of England could consider raising interest rates later this year. National insurance payments will increase by 1.25% in April whilst, around the same time, energy bills are due to rise by around 54%. Utility bills may even double again towards the end of the year, costing the average UK household around £3,000 per year.
Build to rent (BTR) more popular up north
Build to rent just seems to be getting bigger and bigger – both in terms of its reach across the UK housing market and its popularity.
The British Property Federation (BPF) recently revealed that construction began on more than 13,500 BTR homes in regional cities last year – triple the amount of provision in London (where the sector first started).
Ian Fletcher, Director of Policy at the BPF, recognised the huge rise of the BTR sector in northern towns and cities, acknowledging that it went hand-in-hand with regeneration initiatives.
“[Build to rent] is not just about increasing housing provision, it is also a major economic driver,” he said. “It helps attract and retain skilled workers, serving as a catalyst for urban regeneration.
“The strong growth of the BTR sector across the regions will support the government’s levelling up initiative and help revitalise town and city centres”.
At the same time, Savills are convinced the BTR sector will double within the next few years. The estate agency is confident of their prediction because they’ve already seen many local authorities push through planning consent for BTR developments, in the knowledge their own housing stock is diminishing or already diminished.
Research from estate agency Ascend Properties revealed that planning permission requests for build-to-rent units were up by as much as 52% during 2020 – the most intense period of the pandemic.
This rapid growth means the demand for BTR is growing too. Many young professionals can’t afford to become homeowners. Understandably, they also enjoy the inbuilt benefits of BTR complexes, such as gyms, pools, workspaces and cinema rooms. Some complexes even come with concierges and domestic cleaning and laundry facilities.
According to research carried out by the insurer Admiral, there are almost twice as many people in the UK looking to rent one of these new BTR properties as there is accommodation. In Salford, this increases to a whopping 10 people for every one unit.
One new BTR facility on Liverpool’s quayside even has its own “Zoom room”. Those renting at the former HMRC office block now redesigned and renamed The Keel can look their best on-screen thanks to the room’s tinted windows and flattering lighting.
In another BTR development in northwest London, renters can choose to work from a retro camper van. And when the novelty of a camper wears off, residents can also enjoy a cinema room, all while only paying £1,770 a month rent, plus utility bills of around £200/month.
Property advisers CBRE calculated that a record £4.1bn was invested in the sector last year, while BPF figures show there are 26% more BTR units across the UK than in 2020.
Another 141,215 BTR developments are currently being built, or are in the pipeline; Birmingham, Sheffield, Manchester and Liverpool have seen the biggest jump in provisions of BTR properties.
Is This the Last Month of Big Property Price Rises?
Property is now around 20 per cent more expensive than it was before the pandemic.
That’s according to the Nationwide’s latest UK house price index, which puts the average house price in the UK at £260,000. It’s a jump of nearly £30,000 since February last year and more than £44,000 higher than in the same month in 2020.
That makes it 6.5 times the cost of the average UK take-home pay.
Inflation still to make its mark on property market
The Nationwide’s chief economist Robert Gardner, commented that he was surprised inflation hadn’t appeared to hit the property market yet.
“The continued buoyancy of the housing market is a little surprising, given the mounting pressure on household budgets from rising inflation, which reached a 30-year high of 5.5% in January, and since borrowing costs have started to move up from all-time lows in recent months,” he said.
“The strength is particularly noteworthy since the squeeze on household incomes has led to a significant weakening of consumer confidence.”
Property prices to drop after summer
That fall in house prices is likely towards the latter half of the year, though warn business analysts. To the extent that they could drop by as much as a tenth in a year. Those most likely to be affected are those who overstretched in order to meet the Stamp Duty deadline, together with first time buyers (for the same reason).
Karl Thompson, of think tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research, predicts a drop of 1.5 per cent every three months from September onwards. That’s then expected to fall one per cent every year for the foreseeable future.
Andrew Wishart, of Capital Economics was more optimistic, predicted property prices would “stagnate rather than collapse in 2023.”
War in Ukraine contributing to higher UK living costs
When it comes to the cost of living, the war in Ukraine has added to petrol costs. This in turn, has caused the Bank of England to consider rising interest rates later this year, say economists. National insurance payments will increase by 1.25 per cent in April while, around the same time, energy bills are due to rise by around 54 per cent. Utility bills may even double again towards the end of the year, costing the average UK household around £3,000 per year.
‘Corrupt Russians’ with £1.5bn of property in capital
The war in Russia has also raised eyebrows over ownership of property in some of London’s swankiest neighbourhoods. These include Kensington, Chelsea and Westminster where properties can regularly cost upwards from £7 million.
According to the not-for-profit organisation Transparency International, Russians with either links to the Kremlin or who have been linked to corruption, have £1.5bn worth of property in the UK today. Many of those property assets have been purchased via off-shore accounts, meaning it has been bought anonymously.
Upmarket estate agents Frank Knight say London was the most popular city in the world for purchasing luxury property during the first year of the pandemic. It even outsold real estate in Hong Kong and New York.