ONS: Property 18.2 Times Above Household Income
More than one quarter of surveyors reported a rise in property prices in their region during November. That compared to just 16% of members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) in October.
The statistics bode well for the first few months of next year. That’s when the market is expected to speed up as would-be buyers try to beat the Stamp Duty changes at the start of April.
Property Portal Rightmove’s Tim Bannister reported recently that he expected the whole of 2025 to be a busy year for house transactions, predicting there would be around 1.15 million completed.
But senior economist at Rics, Tarrant Parsons, didn’t share his optimism. He believes currently high interest rates and the broader macroeconomy will still make buyers hesitate on such large purchases.
His concerns are borne out by figures released by the Office for National Statistics this week. The government data showed that the cost of the average property in England last year was 18.2 times above typical household income of £34,569. That was for the year to March last year while, at the same time, the typical property was valued at £298,000 – a ratio of 8.6. For poorer households the ratio was 18.2.
Mortgage rates to fall next year
Fixed mortgage rates are currently around 4.83% and 5.08% per cent for five-year and two-year products respectively. It’s expected these will reduce to around 4% by the end of 2025. They may even reduce in 2026, but analysts don’t expect them to fall to pre-cost of living rates. The expectation they will fall though is prompting more people to take out two-year mortgages.
More first-time buyers than last year
Rightmove reports there are 13% more first-time buyer enquiries than there were at the same time last year. Rents continue to rise, although Rics reported a 1% drop in enquiries list month. This may, of course, be due to the time of year.
In order to battle the house crisis Sir Keir Starmer has recently vowed to build 300,000 new homes annually. The previous Conservative government promised similar construction figures but 200,000 was the highest number of homes built in any one year.