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Category: Market Pulse

Commercial Office and Retail Pandemic Profit Plunge

Residential property sales may be booming right now, but it’s a different story, of course, for commercial property companies. 

The pandemic has had a devastating effect on the profits of many property groups due to lockdowns and the government’s insistence individuals should work from home as much as possible. Then there has been the understandable reluctance of shoppers to venture down the high street for health reasons. At the same time, restaurants have had their opening hours restricted, and pubs banned from selling booze. 

It shouldn’t really come as any surprise then to learn that many tenants are downsizing their property projections and commercial property companies are responding by cutting their portfolio valuations – particularly since construction work has also been delayed, in many cases.

Admittedly, it can’t all be blamed on the pandemic though. When it comes to retail shopping was already heading online. Working from home too was already an option for many company employees. What the pandemic has done in these two cases is simply accelerate already inevitable moves. 

Pandemic forces portfolio valuations and shares down 

Meanwhile, two commercial property companies in particular have revealed how the Covid-19 pandemic has affected them. London’s Great Portland Estates and flexible office unit provider Workspace have both announced a reduction in their share price, as well as downgraded property portfolio valuations.

Great Portland Estates, for instance, only collected 80% of rent due last month – mostly from offices, rather than restaurants and retail outlets. The Group has also been forced to drop rents as a result of vacancies and lockdown. As a result, it has down-valued its commercial property portfolio by at least 6%. Last week it saw its shares fall by 2%.

Land Securities (LandSec), which owns the retail centre Trinity Leeds experienced a huge £945m loss over the past six months. It brings its portfolio valuation down to a loss of £835m.

The FTSE 100 group also has a central London portfolio, valued at around £7.9bn, which makes up around 67 per cent of its assets.

It’s CE Mark Allan, said he believed there would always be a market for high-quality London office assets, making him ‘optimistic’ for the future. 

But not all commercial property ventures agree…

Workspace revealed the value of its property portfolio had fallen by 5% over the past six months. For the first three months of the pandemic they offered hard-hit customers a 50% reduction in rent. Their shares fell by 1.3% last week, resulting in a total annual fall of 38%. A statement by the Group, admitted that the pandemic had “fundamentally changed the role and requirements of the office”. 

Entrepreneur and Dragon’s Den panel member Theo Paphitis has already said he will be cutting his office space requirements. He added: “I can’t see offices with that many people ever again. First thing I’ll be doing is cutting down the number of people come into the office. We’ll need less space.”

Inner city offices and business areas worst hit

One of the locations most hit by the changing demands for office accommodation is the Isle of Dogs. Skyscrapers in particular, have fallen in popularity, due to the inability to adhere to distancing guidelines in lifts and central areas. Instead, many companies are now seeking self-contained developments. 

Wealthy City Dwellers Fuelling UK Property Market Drive

Lifestyle changes are affecting the housing market more than Rishi Sunak’s furlough extension, according to a leading property analyst.

Richard Donnell, Zoopla’s research and insight director, said it was city dwellers selling their £1 million homes that was continuing to prop up the market. Being in lockdown for 50 days, he said, had encouraged them to move to a country or seaside retreat worth half the value of their former luxury pad.

As a result, he said, house prices would continue to grow – even until March when the current furlough scheme and Stamp Duty holiday are due to end. The property portal’s data shows 40% more traffic to their website than the previous year.

Donnell added: “The rate of growth at the end of next year will be less than 4 or 5%, but it will take quite a lot, and quite a dramatic change of circumstances, for house prices to go into negative territory at the end of next year.”

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) also noted high sales numbers, with 98,010 property sales going through in September. That number is an increase of 21% on August’s figures, although it is slightly down year-on-year at 0.7%.

London suburbs see biggest price jump for five years

But it’s not only coastal and rural areas that are benefitting. Even the outer suburbs of the capital are cashing in on the dash to get out Inner London. Upmarket estate agency Knight Frank say that at 0.9% they have seen the highest quarterly rise in prime property there for five years. 

Home owners in Belsize Park were the biggest winners, with property rising 3.2% there. Next highest was Dulwich with a 2.3% increase in prices, Wandsworth had 2.1% and Wimbledon 1.8%.

London property letting market not as buoyant

Valuations may be higher for home owners, but landlords are seeing a drop in rental values in the prime outer London market, according to Knight Frank. High levels of supply had meant that rents fell 7.6%. In Inner London the drop was even steeper, at 9.1% for the year to October.

The reason there are so many more rental apartments available – 20% more than usual at this time of year – is because of uncertainty surrounding coronavirus.

Average UK house price worth £250,000 say Halifax

Meanwhile, another record was set this month. This time it was the turn of the Halifax House Price Index which recorded the average house price at worth more than £250,000 for the first time in its 37 years.

Lockdown 2 hasn’t had much effect on the property market – physical viewings are still going ahead (albeit in a socially distanced fashion). This compares to the first lockdown when such viewings were banned for a period of seven weeks. 

Just one week after Lockdown 2 began, the number of house valuations had gone up by 38%. This second lockdown is due to end on December 2 – but not, it seems, the continued desire for people to move home.

Property Market Propels Forward Despite Lockdown 2

Confused over what Lockdown 2 means for the property market in England? We’re not surprised. But, the good news is – it’s still ‘open for business’ – albeit with strict social distancing rules in mind.

According to Secretary of State for Housing Robert Jenrick, viewings and valuations can still take place when Lockdown 2 kicks in on Thursday, November 5. At the same time, house moves with hire vans and removal firms and can also go ahead, so long as all parties involved wear masks. This includes renters as well as property owners.

Rush to beat stamp duty deadline

This means that buyers keen to save thousands by getting the keys to their new home before the end of March 31, will still be in with a chance since surveyors and conveyancers will still be working (albeit from home). Many are speculating too that because of Lockdown 2 the Stamp Duty Holiday may be extended. 

It’s not yet known, however, whether those who already have most of the sale in progress can still go ahead with completion or have to wait until December 2 when Lockdown 2 is due to end. During the last lockdown they were advised to put it on hold until the market opened again. A ruling over this is expected from the government later this week.

It may simply be academic though since its unlikely completions would go ahead within a reasonable timescale anyway. This week, a Rightmove report shows a huge backlog of UK property completions. In Glasgow, 71% of sold properties still have to be completed. Sheffield is next highest with 67% of sold properties waiting to complete. Bristol, Plymouth, Leeds and Nottingham also have big backlogs, according to the number of properties sold on the site.

Physical viewings may still be available

Similarly, we will hear in the next couple of days whether or not estate agents will be able to conduct physical viewings with prospective buyers (otherwise, legally an offer can’t be put in). Just like the first lockdown though, most viewings will be virtual. If it’s allowed then a physical viewing will be merely for ‘finalising’ a prospective buyer’s decision.

Many agents are using their smart phones to talk potential buyers through a property using video, similar to them being there in person. Others have 3D cameras, allowing viewers to conduct their own online tour through a property.

New property continues to be built

There will be no change to the construction industry. Employees can still go on site, builders’ merchants will remain open and tradesmen can enter homes. Jenrick confirmed this week that the government’s plan to build 300,000 homes a year was still “very much on.”

Mortgage holiday extended

House owners who haven’t applied previously for a mortgage holiday from their lender can now do so, for up to six months. Those who have already deferred can continue until they reach the six-month limit. Interest will still accrue over this time.

Landlords given blanket eviction ban over Christmas

Tenants can’t lose their rental property over the Christmas season from December 11 to January 11. At present they must be given six months notice of an eviction – unless particular circumstances prevail ie anti-social behaviour, domestic abuse etc. Tenants living in high-risk coronavirus locations ie those in Tier 2 and Tier 3 can’t be evicted at the moment.

Airbnb Gives Landlord Details to HMRC

It was only ever going to be a matter of time before the taxman got his claws into Airbnb. After all, eBay sellers have been on his radar for years. Well, now it’s time for professional and ad hoc Airbnb hosts to cough up too. 

That’s because, as part of a deal with the online letting giant, the UK Treasury was given the names of 225,000 Airbnb hosts. The company itself was also forced to hand over £1.8m in tax fees. That’s in addition to the £5.6m it declared as tax for 2019. 

Many Airbnb landlords won’t have to pay tax

Not all Airbnb hosts will be due to pay tax on their earnings. Some may fall within the Rent a Room category, for instance, and where it’s possible to earn up to £7,500 without having to be pay tax. Airbnb itself says the majority of its users earn around just £3,100 a year.

For those that may exceed the threshold, HMRC say they will go back at least a couple of years. That means looking through the records for the tax years 2017-18 and 2018-2019.  

Many tax analysts are recommending hosts eligible for tax ‘own up now.’ That way they could avoid further fees, such as interest and penalties for late payment since HMRC may possibly take this ‘quick rectification’ into account.

HMRC can investigate up to two decades of accounts

HMRC can, in fact, investigate tan individual’s tax/business accounts for the past four years if it believes an ‘innocent error’ was made. For a ‘careless’ declaration’ it will go back six years. For international affairs it can be 12 years for an ‘innocent mistake’ and 20 years for ‘failure to notify.’ Deliberate acts of underpayment can result in criminal action being taken.

A spokesman for HMRC said: “People with additional income streams may not be fully aware of their tax obligations and so we have taken steps in HMRC to consider sectors, such as short-term property letting, where we may not be collecting the full amount of tax owed.”

He added: “We would encourage customers to check their tax affairs, seeking advice where necessary, in order to put right any honest mistakes or omissions.” 

Airbnb landlords may be charged business rates

Those that don’t have to pay tax on their Airbnb earnings may have to look out for being charged Business Rates, however. These apply in England, Scotland and Wales if property is rented out for at least 140 days a year. These are based on number of beds available and overall size of the property, as well as its location. 

Other exemptions for Airbnb tax include:

  • Rental income for the year is less than £1000
  • Total income for the year – including employment – falling below the Personal Allowance (£12,500 for 2020/21)

Airbnb and other ad hoc landlords not familiar with the tax structure of property are always advised to contact an accountant specialising in the subject for further clarification. 

John Lewis Diversifying into Build to Rent Apartments

Around 20 current closed John Lewis stores will become locations for the company’s brand-new contemporary Build to Rent (BTR) developments.

The popular retail giant is keen to diversity its business portfolio by moving into residential and affordable housing next year. This is as a direct result of falling profits for the past three years – to the extent, accountants at the firm are fully prepared to record a loss this financial year. 

John Lewis to make 40% of profits on housing and insurance

Spearheading the new strategy is chairwoman of the JL Partnership, Dame Sharon White. The former economist took over in March just before lockdown. She said her plans were for 40% of profits coming from housing and financial services by the end of the decade. By this she meant with John Lewis becoming a Build to Rent landlord and selling its own brand of housing insurance to tenants.

The firm’s retail arm will account for just 60% of planned future profits. Dame White has already pledged to spend £1bn spent on boosting online sales and refitting existing stores. The possibility of opening John Lewis garden centres is also being discussed. 

Two BTR planning applications for start of 2021

Two official planning applications for the change of use will be submitted at the start of next year for housing developments at John Lewis’ London stores. The New Build’s will mean some of the apartments will be sited both above, and beside, Waitrose supermarkets. That’s because JL Partnership also owns the supermarket chain.

When completed the Build to Rent apartments will be furnished with products from the John Lewis stores. The idea is tenants will also shop at the group’s Waitrose stores. 

A company spokesman said: “We’re a landlord already at three of our properties, so this is an obvious extension for us. And we’re now talking to developers and investors who can help us achieve our ambitions.” 

John Lewis has a total of 42 department stores, all of which were forced to close in spring and during the pandemic. Together with Waitrose, it employs up to 78,000 staff – although staff cuts are certainly on the horizon. 

John Lewis turn shop floors into office rental space

Executives have already started applying for a change of use regarding the group’s flagship store. They want to rent out three of the building’s floors as office space to rent.

And finally, the company is also about to ditch its famous ‘never knowingly undersold’ slogan. It will be replaced with ‘value for money’ – a more appropriate promise it feels, considering the current economy.

Dame White herself added: “We want to make John Lewis and Waitrose the ‘go to’ brands for customers who want quality, value and sustainability.”

She added that the group would share its success with “customers, partners and communities.” That “success” includes recording £400m profits by 2025.Meanwhile, John Lewis isn’t exactly going in to unchartered territory. Another home furnisher – this time Swedish giant Ikea – has already pledged to build affordable housing, in Worthing. It had commissioned Swedish property developer BoKlok to build 162 flats prior to lockdown

Property Market Continues to Smash Records

UK House prices hit a record high last month as the move by inner city dwellers to get to greener pastures continues.

Property portal Rightmove’s latest House Price Index recorded a national average asking price of £323,530 per property. That’s a 5.5% increase (£16,818) on the figure for the same time last year.

The stunning statistics, considering the current circumstances surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, has prompted Rightmove forecasters to predict a 7% rise in property values for 2020. They had previously put the figure at 2%.

A number of property records ‘smashed’

But it’s not just property prices that are ‘up’ – the number of properties sold per estate agent is also impressive. To the extent that last month 70% more houses sold than in September 2019.

And property is selling faster too. The average house or apartment is now taking just 50 days to swap hands – compared to 62 days.

It doesn’t look as if the situation is going to quieten down any time soon either, despite the run-up to the winter months. The number of active buyers compared to last year is down only 1% to 66% from its peak in July of 67%.

Even Rightmove are declaring records of their own for the portal – with a huge surge in traffic. They say the number of online visitors to their site was 50% higher than September last year. That’s the highest annual jump since way back in 2006.

But, Property Data Director of Rightmove Tim Bannister warned house sellers not to get too carried away with their asking price. That’s because the sheer volume of house sales has created a backlog and that may mean many transactions not going through before the end of the Stamp Duty Holiday deadline. As a result, some sales may fall through as buyers, losing thousands of pounds, may refuse to pay the higher property prices being asked.

The number of buyers potentially trapped in this property bottleneck could be as high as 200,000 according to online property consultancy TwentyCi.

Bannister added: “Whilst activity levels continue to amaze there are some signs of momentum easing off from these unprecedented levels.”

Estate agents say low mortgage interest rates has also helped fuel demand – to the extent there are currently more buyers than sellers.

Most sales have taken place in what Rightmove refers to as ‘top of the ladder’ properties. These are homes worth more than £500,000 with a minimum three to four bedrooms and where buyers will benefit from up to £15,000 in Stamp Duty savings.

Upmarket estate agency Savills say sales for around 868 properties worth £1 million upwards, have gone through on a weekly basis since June 1. These are mostly for rural areas, with the Cotswolds recording a 94% increase in sales since June this year.

London though is losing out on interest from foreign buyers. Interest in the city centre and other expensive areas has fallen since travel restrictions were introduced during the summer months. And yet, the capital has sold 4% more upmarket properties than at this point the previous year.

House Price Winners and Losers over the Past Decade

If you were purchasing a house in the UK in 2010 as an investment property, what’s the top spot you could have chosen?

Well, according to a recent Rightmove Study of property prices over the past decade, you’ll be hoping it was Bristol you bought in.

That’s because property prices there have increased by as much as an astonishing 120% from September 2010 to September 2020. 

Most of all though, you’ll have wanted to invest in the city’s Easton area as that proves the most lucrative. Property prices there today are an average £283,397 – around £155,000 more expensive than if you bought in 2010.

But why Bristol? Well according to local estate agents the city is pretty ‘jumping.’ It is deemed to offer a good quality of life with plenty of entertainment and ‘good places to visit’ both there and nearby. According to one local estate agent is has a ‘vibrant foodie and cultural scene.’ 

But Bristol is also a tech employment hub and near enough to London for residents to pick up on the pulse of London, but retire to leafier climes when the need arises. This can be seen in the fact that house prices city-wide have risen by 60% over the past decade. Not only that, but six of the 10 top places in the Rightmove survey are in Bristol.

Dartford and Essex also get ‘thumbs up’

If you’d missed Bristol though and bought in Swanscombe, near Dartford in Kent instead, then you would also have done very nicely. That’s because property there increased by 106%, with the typical property averaging £326,106. Third highest location, according to the Rightmove Survey of 2 million properties sold, was Tilbury in Essex, and which saw house prices practically double over the decade. 

Nairn residents near Inverness are biggest losers

And where there are winners you will almost certainly find losers. In this case it is the quaint seaside town of Nairn, near Inverness in the Highlands which comes bottom of the decade property price league. Property here has fallen by around 15% over the past 10 years. The average house is valued at £200,000. Residents in Linthorpe in Middlesbrough will also be pretty depressed to learn that the value of their abode has fallen by 12% since 2010, bringing the cost of the average home there to £128,352.

In fact, most of the locations which saw falls in property prices are in the North of England and Scotland. They include Shildon, Ferryhill and Peterlee in Durham, Wigton in Cumbria and Kilwinning, Johnstone and Galashiels in Scotland.

London locations to look at

The biggest winners in the capital include Walthamstow, Peckham and Tottenham. House prices in Walthamstow rose by 117% over the decade, while Peckham wasn’t far behind with 117%. In Tottenham they rose 106%.

Regional winners and losers

London and the East of England saw the biggest house price growth over the past decade, with Scotland and the North East witnessing the worst.

What Pandemic? House Prices Hit Record High in June

The UK government’s own figures declare it to be true – house prices rose to a record high in June. Even a national pandemic, it seems, can’t put the brakes on soaring house prices. 

According to the latest figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) House Price Index, the cost of the average home had jumped by 3.4% (an increase of around £8,000 compared to the same time last year), bringing the total price to £238,000 at the start of the summer. 

The figure is based on transactions which went through in March and April – at the height of the pandemic and when the country was already in lockdown. These were resumed in May when the English property market reopened – and which also resulted in a certain amount of pent-up demand.

East Midlands tops the table for property price rise

The biggest growth in house prices was in the East Midlands, which an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. Next was the North West with 4.4%. House owners in the South West saw the value of their homes rise by 4.3%, while in London Second Steppers (those going from a starter home to three or four-bedroom property) pushed up prices by 4.2% compared to 2019’s figures. Properties in the North East saw the lowest rise, according to the ONS statistics, at just 1.7%.

Not surprisingly, the government statistics also show that houses, rather than apartments, is the new buying trend post-Covid. This is, of course, home owners looking for more space, including greenery, in the event of further lockdowns. To the extent, the value of flats rose by 4.1% compared to just 0.9% for flats.

Number of sales more important than prices say analysts

June’s ONS House Price Index is the first published since the country went in to lockdown earlier this year. Although it shows prices are ‘up’ on the previous year, the number of sales which went through are down by 37% compared to 2019. And it is the number of sales – rather than the rising value of house prices – which is the greater indicator of how the market is performing, according to analysts. The Stamp Duty Holiday – where homes under £500,001 are exempt – will increase transactions over the next six months but that is due to come to an end in March 2020. 

The Stamp Duty holiday will, however, will keep sales more buoyant than normal as the government’s furlough scheme comes to an end, bringing the fear of job losses. The latter is expected to impinge negatively on price growth as prospective buyers wait and see what happens to the economy over the next six months or so. A potential No Deal Brexit also brings its own worries.

A survey by mortgage lender BSA found that 68% said they were put off buying a home because they were too worried about whether they would still have a job in the coming months. This compared to almost half that number (37%) last year during the ongoing Brexit negotiations, which in itself created a great deal of uncertainty.

Property market seemingly immune to Coronavirus

UK house prices just keep on rising – but for how long? As more giant national employers announce job losses property analysts say it’s only a matter of time before the rush to buy begins to settle.

The caution is in response to the latest Halifax Monthly House Index figures which recorded the average property as 5.2% higher than the same period last year. This means the average house in the UK is now worth £245,000 in Halifax terms. And it’s not a far cry off Nationwide’s House Price Index either. The latter recorded a 2% jump between July and August, bringing the value of their average property to £224,123 (around £21,000 less). Halifax recorded that jump in house values between July and August as slightly less – at 1.6%.

In August property portal Zoopla revealed house sales in July were 76% above average over the past five years. Mortgage approvals had also quickly recovered too, according to the Bank of England.

The chancellor’s Stamp Duty holiday scheme, it seems, inflamed the already pent-up demand of lockdown. It means properties in England and Northern Ireland up to the value of £500,000 carry no stamp duty tag. That figure is halved for Scotland and Wales.

Property roller coaster predicted for Nov to April 2021

After the claustrophobia of having to stay indoors during March to May and an increase in home working, many buyers it appears are looking for larger houses with more bedrooms. Gardens and access to more green space remains a priority, while sales of coastal homes are also doing well.

Halifax MD Russell Galley is convinced the rise in property values will falter once government schemes propping up jobs finish at the end of October. At that point, he says, “downward pressure on prices” is expected.

Analysts predict brighter spring/summer 2021

Economic forecasters meanwhile expect that drop to be around 3% by the beginning of next year but then to pick up along with the general economy. That’s good news for the majority of house hunters, but not first-time buyers. They still feel frozen out thanks to the lack of available high loan-to-value deals around right now. But then, being priced out of the market won’t make any difference when it comes to house price values – hence the reason values continue to rise.

Those who can afford to buy have probably saved more during lockdown so can get a bigger home. Low mortgage rates are also helping. But they will have to be quick. Not only is the Stamp Duty scheme due to end in March 21, but properties right now are selling quicker too. Last year it was taking 39 days to sell a house; this year that figure has fallen to just 27 days. 

Winners and losers in annual house price values

Cities which were the biggest winners in terms of house price rises between 2020 and 2019 were Leicester and Edinburgh with 4.9% and 4.4% respectively. That’s according to the Zoopla guide. In third place was Manchester (3.6%), fourth Nottingham (3.2%) and fifth was Birmingham with 3.1% growth.

Cities where the average house prices have fallen compared to the previous year include Aberdeen (down a huge 3.9%), London and Cambridge (0.9% less) and Oxford with a drop in house values of 0.3%.

Mortgage approvals double in one month

Mortgage approvals doubled between June and July, bringing the figure just 10% below February’s pre-lockdown numbers.

Latest figures from the Bank of England, show lenders gave the go-ahead for around 66,300 mortgages in July – compared to 39,900 the previous month. The figure for mortgage approvals in February this year was 73,700. By May it had dropped to a mere 9,300 – a record low since 1993 when the BoE first began collating the figures.

Unlike approvals, re-mortgage figure hasn’t jumped

The number of households re-mortgaging was similar month on month, at 36,000. This is almost a third lower than pre-lockdown.

Financially, gross mortgage lending was £17.4bn for July, compared to £16.3bn in June. That’s still short of February’s pre-lockdown levels of £23.7bn.

Figures for August even higher, say analysts

Property analysts believe August’s figures for mortgage approvals will be even higher, thanks to the Stamp Duty holiday which will cut an average of £4,500 from Stamp Duty bills. Those in the industry also point to furloughing of banking and other finance lending’ staff is resulting in a slowdown in the time taken for approvals to come through. Many believe the figures for August and September will reach February’s numbers very soon.

North London estate agent and former Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors residential chairman Jeremy Leaf commented that the number of mortgage approvals did not reflect the stronger upsurge that the majority of surveyors noted across most property types and price ranges from the beginning of August.

Other analysts, however, are concerned about the effect the end of furloughing will have on the economy as a whole and the property market specifically.

Warning of lenders tightening their purse strings

Sam Harhat, Head of Finance at Andrews Property Group said lenders were becoming ever more stringent about lending, especially for high loan-to-value mortgages (those favoured by first-time buyers). This, he believed, would have a pretty deadening effect on the number of mortgage approvals for August.

He added: “The demand for property is exceptionally strong, a result of pent-up demand, the low cost of borrowing and the stamp duty holiday, while the availability of mortgage finance has been contracting by the day.”

Bigger houses selling one third faster than last year

It’s been clear over the past couple of months that rural retreats and suburbs are more popular than city centre living. But, property portal Zoopla claim they have also seen a 30% rise in the sale of four-and-five-bedroom homes since the easing of lockdown. That’s because people moving out of expensive city locations can afford bigger homes in quieter spots.

The website is also anticipating house prices to be 2 to 3% higher at the end of the year than they were at the beginning, thanks to “government support for the labour market and economy.”

Borrowing up in July – to above average levels

Meanwhile, Brits borrowed more money than they paid off in July – for the first time since April this year. At an additional £1.2bn it was slightly higher than the monthly average of £1.1bn for the past year and a half.

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